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3 mentions found


☆ Surging immigration will boost the US labor force and send GDP higher, Goldman says
  + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
"Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. The bank boosted its 2024 GDP forecast in a note on Sunday, arguing that a jump in labor force growth via elevated immigration will drive the US economy higher. "Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. Advertisement"We expect immigration to be about 1mn higher than usual this year, implying breakeven job growth of around 125k and a 0.3pp boost to potential GDP growth in 2024 from faster labor force growth," Walker said. Advertisement"Our estimates imply that above-trend immigration will boost potential GDP growth by 0.3pp in 2024.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Ronnie Walker, Walker Organizations: Service Locations: America
☆ Deutsche Bank examined economic data going all the way back to the 1700s and narrowed down the 4 criteria that indicate a recession is coming — and the US economy just triggered the final warning sign
  + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
And while 12 months of speculation can seem like a lifetime for investors who just want an answer, it's really only a small moment in economic history. Reid and his team spotted plenty of patterns in all that data, including the common warning signs of a recession. For example, scholars and economists have been tracking recession data in the UK since 1700, while Italy only began tracking recessions in 1980. Reid wrote that black swan events such as geopolitical shocks, natural disasters, and global pandemics happen more often than people think. "And that's before we get on to more traditional causes of recessions, like monetary tightening or speculative bubbles," Reid wrote.
Persons: it's, Jim Reid, Reid, would've, Deutsche Bank Reid Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan
☆ Column: Biden crosses fingers Fed achieves 'soft landing'
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | Thomson Reuters | Jamie Mcgeever Has Been A Financial Journalist Since | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Not only are his current approval ratings historically low, they are particularly poor given that unemployment is at its lowest in more than half a century. As a result, Biden's approval ratings could reasonably be expected to rise if inflation continues to decline. Reuters analysis suggests presidential approval ratings are rarely below 40% when inflation is 6% or lower. What will have a greater impact on consumers' and voters' well-being - unemployment pain or inflation gain? Some economists say the 'Misery Index', the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate, is a decent proxy for people's happiness and even presidential approval ratings.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Biden, Harry Truman's, Joseph Macri, Bahram Adrangi, 3pp, Andy Schneider, Lina El, Robert MacCulloch, Hamed Shafiee, David Blanchflower, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, Atlanta, Reuters, Presidents, BNP, Dartmouth College, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S, Iraq
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